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strong stocks not targeted by funds

 
 
dumbstruck
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      01-05-2012, 01:42 AM
It's frustrating that most etfs and mutual funds seem to be lockstep
in correlation with broader markets, yet there is a class of stocks
that are defying downturns and volatility. Maybe they will dive as I
say this, but large downmarket consumer discretionary stocks have been
doing great for many months selling pizza, burgers. cheap clothes etc:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=6m&s...rost&c=%5EGSPC

I hate to have to track and trade such stocks individually, yet there
seems no good alternative. Available consumer discretionary funds
carry along a bunch of mid market sluggards that kills overall
returns. Same issue with high dividend yield funds - even with clever
filters they seem to weight you down with obvious clunkers. Is there
no alternative to messing with individual stocks in today's market
conditions?

 
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Ron Peterson
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      01-07-2012, 05:27 PM
On Jan 4, 5:42*pm, dumbstruck <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:

> I hate to have to track and trade such stocks individually, yet there
> seems no good alternative.


It's easy being a Monday morning quarterback, but how did you pick
those stocks?

--
Ron

 
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dumbstruck
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      01-07-2012, 07:42 PM
On Jan 7, 7:27*am, Ron Peterson <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
> It's easy being a Monday morning quarterback, but how did you pick
> those stocks?


I was following various stock picker TV shows, because sometimes folks
in the trenches weigh in on macro trends that you can target with
funds. But now with most traditional macro categories gagging equally
on the mediterranean diet, I started to take notice of stocks that
defy gravity and infer weird macro stories that are driving them.
Especially if their story inspires knee-jerk skepticism then the trend
has room to gather future converts, so I'd try to rig a pseudo sector
fund.

BTW, my examples weren't recent flashes in the pan; you can click on
longer periods to see they steadily march upward. I guess it would be
simpler to look at the 52 week high list of stocks and keep track of
those that have had a steady rise based on graphs. Basically I am
starting to infer macro trends bottom up rather than just analyze top
down. I reckon traditional sector switching is too dominated and
arbitraged by computer and hedge fund traders, so we may have to
invent "morningstar categories" of our own to target.

Some example themes are go-downmarket consumer (when you might think
only rich are spending), high dividend (in scary areas like finance
and housing, but attaining capital growth), and sensible-but-unloved
energy (like GLNG, handling nat gas). The go-downmarket run has been
incredible with many more names than I noted, so maybe my sell
discipline will be tested soon. I am trying a darwinian approach,
where I clean out deadwood by enthusiasm of finding cash for the new.
The process is made easier with an instant-on tablet handy that can
spit out performance graphs a few seconds after any new idea.

 
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