strong stocks not targeted by funds

Discussion in 'Financial Planning' started by dumbstruck, Jan 5, 2012.

  1. dumbstruck

    dumbstruck Guest

    It's frustrating that most etfs and mutual funds seem to be lockstep
    in correlation with broader markets, yet there is a class of stocks
    that are defying downturns and volatility. Maybe they will dive as I
    say this, but large downmarket consumer discretionary stocks have been
    doing great for many months selling pizza, burgers. cheap clothes etc:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=6m&s=DLTR&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=mcd,dpz rost&c=^GSPC

    I hate to have to track and trade such stocks individually, yet there
    seems no good alternative. Available consumer discretionary funds
    carry along a bunch of mid market sluggards that kills overall
    returns. Same issue with high dividend yield funds - even with clever
    filters they seem to weight you down with obvious clunkers. Is there
    no alternative to messing with individual stocks in today's market
    conditions?
     
    dumbstruck, Jan 5, 2012
    #1
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  2. dumbstruck

    Ron Peterson Guest

    On Jan 4, 5:42 pm, dumbstruck <> wrote:

    > I hate to have to track and trade such stocks individually, yet there
    > seems no good alternative.


    It's easy being a Monday morning quarterback, but how did you pick
    those stocks?

    --
    Ron
     
    Ron Peterson, Jan 7, 2012
    #2
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  3. dumbstruck

    dumbstruck Guest

    On Jan 7, 7:27 am, Ron Peterson <> wrote:
    > It's easy being a Monday morning quarterback, but how did you pick
    > those stocks?


    I was following various stock picker TV shows, because sometimes folks
    in the trenches weigh in on macro trends that you can target with
    funds. But now with most traditional macro categories gagging equally
    on the mediterranean diet, I started to take notice of stocks that
    defy gravity and infer weird macro stories that are driving them.
    Especially if their story inspires knee-jerk skepticism then the trend
    has room to gather future converts, so I'd try to rig a pseudo sector
    fund.

    BTW, my examples weren't recent flashes in the pan; you can click on
    longer periods to see they steadily march upward. I guess it would be
    simpler to look at the 52 week high list of stocks and keep track of
    those that have had a steady rise based on graphs. Basically I am
    starting to infer macro trends bottom up rather than just analyze top
    down. I reckon traditional sector switching is too dominated and
    arbitraged by computer and hedge fund traders, so we may have to
    invent "morningstar categories" of our own to target.

    Some example themes are go-downmarket consumer (when you might think
    only rich are spending), high dividend (in scary areas like finance
    and housing, but attaining capital growth), and sensible-but-unloved
    energy (like GLNG, handling nat gas). The go-downmarket run has been
    incredible with many more names than I noted, so maybe my sell
    discipline will be tested soon. I am trying a darwinian approach,
    where I clean out deadwood by enthusiasm of finding cash for the new.
    The process is made easier with an instant-on tablet handy that can
    spit out performance graphs a few seconds after any new idea.
     
    dumbstruck, Jan 7, 2012
    #3
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