Andrew said:
I see that I've left out a critical piece of information. The account
that I'm opening is going to be invested into what they call a
Cyclical Asset Allocation Portfolio Plus (CAAP Plus) consisting of
about 15 or so ETFs from sector-specific Large caps, Mid caps, Small
caps, foreign ETF and cash. AG Edward's committee reallocates the
assets between those ETFs using different % split every quarter or
more frequently depending on their view of the market and economy.
I'm not familiar with that program but a couple questions, some to ask
AGE, some for you:
1. what amount of turnover should you expect in this strategy? This is a
VERY important question if this is going to be in a taxable account. I
have seen some "rotation" strategies that generate a constant stream of
trade confirmations and a lot of short-term capital gains. That adds tax
drag that the strategy has to overcome before truly going into the black.
2. (if in taxable account) what kind of tax tracking will AGE do, what
kind of reports will you get to assist in tax preparation? If someone
does your taxes how much will their fee go up (if at all)? I've seen
some extreme examples involving many dozens of transactions over the
course of a year and a lot of extra work at tax time. If your 15 minute
TurboTax return turns into a $1200 return by a CPA you need to earn
$1200 more on your portfolio or else you're no better off.
3. "the big one": are you comfortable that this committee is going to
earn their paycheck, and justify messing with things? I.e. - has it
worked? Look, it'd be easy to come up with a static allocation to say
large, mid, small cap US stocks, foreign stocks, and cash, and let it
tick along, rebalancing say once a year or whatever - AGE could even do
this for you. If they're going to mess with things, and do "tactical
asset allocation" (shifting money among these asset classes based on
their predictions about each) or "sector rotation" (concentrating money
in what they think are the most attractive industry sectors within an
asset class) presumably it's so you'll end up with more money at the end
of the pipe. Has it worked, when done by this specific committee, and if
so for how long? Has it worked after factoring in the higher taxes that
result from shifting money around (if this is a taxable account)?
#3 is a tough question because the response is, "compared to what?" But
they should have some kind of comparison prepared for you showing why
there's some advantage to the program. Amazingly though - I have
certainly see these kinds of programs where they didn't do as well as
just sticking the money in a "boring" and static asset allocation and
forgetting about it. If you're going to be paying 112 basis points a
year to "do better" it's a fair question to ask.
-Tad