Economic apocalypse on the way


C

Crowley

Apocalyptic prediction in todays Observer........

Alphabet of global downturn

Financier-turned-economic pundit Jim Mellon sees no reason to be
optimistic about the world's financial future

Sunday September 25, 2005
The Observer


The unwelcome arrival of Katrina and Rita in the US has swept away
illusions about American society. The competence of the authorities,
the standard of living of many of its people, the fabric of the
country's infrastructure - all have been cast in doubt by the storms'
effects. Third World scenes of starvation, looting and rampage have
emphasised the fine line between ordered society and the law of the
jungle. No country is ever that many steps away from anarchy and chaos.
The same is true of financial markets. Although a natural optimist, I
am going to make a prediction that is almost apocalyptic. In a short
time - a few years at most - the rich West and Japan will have a
terrible shock. Living standards will fall precipitously, companies
will fail en masse and established institutions will find themselves in
financial peril. Asset prices - particularly those of houses - will
fall dramatically in some countries, notably the US and UK, and world
trade conditions will deteriorate significantly.

Worse, global tensions will rise and China will not only be a threat to
Italian sock and bra manufacturers, but a potential military threat to
the Pax Americana.

There will be no warning of the arrival of this downturn, but the early
signs are clear. Simplistically, I distil these threats into five
categories, A, B, C, D and E. All of them represent confluent trends
that herald the end of a long period of human advancement in the rich
world. Six decades of technological advance, growth in material output,
extension of human longevity, and unbroken peace in our cosseted part
of the world, is coming to a conclusion.

The five trends are:

· Anti-Americanism and the beginning of the end of US hegemony.

· Balances - trade, fiscal and societal - which are out of kilter as
never before.

· China's growth which has put it on the way to being the world's
largest economy and the main Pacific power.

· Debts run up by consumers, companies and governments are at all-time
peaks, and a dramatic and painful correction is the only remedy.

· Environmental: even ardent Bushites must be beginning to think man
is having some effect on the planet's climate. The world's population
has quadrupled in 60 years, and the problems of waste and consumption,
as well as of pollution, are not going to get any better.

The anti-Americanism is a feature of nightly TV news bulletins. Since
two-thirds of the world's population - the part that is young and
growing - live in relative poverty, there will be frustration about and
antipathy towards the Big Brother of the affluent world.

The US policy of acting as a roving cop has added to Second and Third
World disaffection, and fundamentalism and terrorism are the children
of disaffection. Efforts to help the poor world with rock concerts and
debt cancellations are noble but insufficient, especially as Western
farm subsidies do more harm to developing countries than our aid does
good.

This anti-Americanism, and the US forays into hot spots around the
globe, are in themselves not major factors in my economic predictions.
But they add a backdrop of malaise to an already deteriorating
situation, and will complicate any recovery from what is going to be a
period of decline.

Balances - the B on my list - are glaringly awful. The US imports half
as much again as it exports, and it pays for the deficiency in its own,
self-printed currency. Trade's obese twin deficit - the fiscal one - is
largely paid for by Asian central banks recycling surplus dollars they
receive for selling goods to America, through the acquisition of US
government debt.

These negative balances - which apply to the UK as well - have been
around for a long time, but we are close to the limits of their
expansion. Any refusal by the Asians to keep on funding US profligacy,
or any serious moves to protectionism by the major Western nations,
will tip us into a rerun of the 1929 Wall Street crash.

There is only one way out for the US, and it involves pain. I forecast
that a deflationary period of adjustment is imminent and that while,
confusingly, we are in a short period of commodity-induced price
inflation, ultimately asset prices will fall.

The Anglo-Saxon housing bubbles are close to popping, and that will
drag down consumption - the great driver of the world's economy - by
more than anyone now imagines.

And that brings me to China. Its growth and ambitions are well known.
Nearly a quarter of the world's population are prepared to work for
wages which are on average one-hundredth of those in Germany. Whatever
Germany, or the US or Italy, try to do, they cannot compete with that.
More and more production will go to China, protectionist pressures will
intensify and diplomatic tensions will grow with them.

All sorts of potential flashpoints exist, but if I had to pick one it
would be Taiwan. China wants Taiwan back and one day it will have a go
at getting it. The US response to that should be of more than casual
interest to us.

In a way, we are in 1912 again. British supremacy was waning then and a
new military power rising, one based on economic achievement. Then, of
course, it was Germany. We have to hope a similar conflict doesn't
result with China.

The first problem with debt is that US and UK consumers have been using
rising house prices as a kind of ATM machine to take out equity to
spend, often on imported goods. When the merry-go-round stops - as is
beginning to happen - the consumption stops too. A slump in consumption
lasting a decade or more, as happened in Japan, is possible for both
nations. American debt is higher today relative to the size of the US
economy than it was in 1929, and all the monetary and fiscal tinkering
in the world can't cure its pernicious effects.

Last there are environmental issues. Wind farms, solar power and carbon
credits will be nowhere near enough to combat the effects of population
growth, China's higher consumption of commodities and the obliteration
of the rainforests. Less consumption and more nuclear power are the
only solutions.

In short, within three years the world economy will be in a significant
downturn, and the correction process for the Anglo-Saxon economies will
last as long as a decade.

Pay, and therefore living standards, will have to adjust to the effect
of Chinese competition. Stock markets will collapse, house prices in
the over-extended markets of the UK and the US will fall by up to 50
per cent, and major investment banks and other financial institutions
will go bust.

Opportunities will abound for those with cash and little or no debt,
but remember that the people who threw themselves from Wall Street
windows in 1929 were generally not those who got caught up in the early
part of the Crash. They were those who bought when shares had halved.
Cheap can and will get cheaper.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,1577521,00.html

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showforum=22
 
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T

Tom Sacold

<snipped the anti-USA shit>

What a load of old socialist bollocks !!!
 
C

Chris X

Tom Sacold said:
<snipped the anti-USA shit>
Actually, it was an interesting article which echoes what we in the BNP have
been saying for some time.
What a load of old socialist bollocks !!!
Inconvenient for you Zionazi neo-cons, obviously. But then, the truth
always *is*.
 
A

abelard

Actually, it was an interesting article which echoes what we in the BNP have
been saying for some time.
rotf.

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news and comment service, logic,
energy, education, politics, etc 1,507,905 document calls in year past
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
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A

abelard

FFS not again. What are you doing on the floor this time?
you socialists will never understand that....
you could try examining carefully
'what we in the bnp have been saying for some time'
but without a soh it is very unlikely you'd ever see the funny side of it.

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news and comment service, logic,
energy, education, politics, etc 1,507,905 document calls in year past
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
C

Chris X

If you don't believe that we've been saying it for a while now, I suggest
you read the article archives on the BNP site, MOUA. But I don't suppose
you'll bother - the truth would, as ever, reveal your utter dishonesty.
When I really want a laugh, I log on to that
EmancipaishonParty/non-party website and read its manifesto.
Now that *is* funny ! ;))
 
A

abelard

When I really want a laugh, I log on to that
EmancipaishonParty/non-party website and read its manifesto.
it is very interesting to see the socialist substitute for humour....

a simple examination of what you socialists call humour would
be instructive for you....
if only you had intelligence or a sense of humour....

explaining humour to you socialists is as forlorn a task as attempting
explaining colour to a blind man....
it is very interesting to watch a socialist leaning 'humourist' and watch
audience reactions...

you use the word 'humour' to indicate a quite different reaction....
yet you clearly cannot discern that difference....

i wish there were humourous socialists....it is rather disturbing that
there are not...joe h comes close at times....
and alan g can show humour but i think he may well have lost
his party card....

but most of you don't even recognise humour when it is your face....

while what you seem to imagine is humour is no such thing....

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news and comment service, logic,
energy, education, politics, etc 1,507,905 document calls in year past
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
J

joseph.hutcheon

abelard said:
On Mon, 26 Sep 2005 08:00:02 +0100, hummingbird
<XSJCLSIAEMCA@spammotel.com>

typed:

it is very interesting to see the socialist substitute for humour....

a simple examination of what you socialists call humour would
be instructive for you....
if only you had intelligence or a sense of humour....

explaining humour to you socialists is as forlorn a task as attempting
explaining colour to a blind man....
it is very interesting to watch a socialist leaning 'humourist' and watch
audience reactions...
But y'see humour is ultimately entirely subjective. Is Jim Davidson
'funny'? To me, clearly not, but to others, clearly so. How about
Bernard Manning? Peter Cook? Tommy Cooper? Jackie Mason? Woody Allen?
Eric Morecombe? Different people will find all, some or none of these
amusing, but I would be very surprised if their reactions bore any
relation to their political affiliation.

Some left-leaning comedians are amusing, so are some right-leaning
comedians. IMO Ben Elton used to be funny, now he isn't, whereas Lenny
Henry has never been funny. Explaining 'humour' is pointless; either
something makes you laugh or it doesn't.
 
C

Crowley

abelard said:
it is very interesting to see the socialist substitute for humour....

a simple examination of what you socialists call humour would
be instructive for you....
if only you had intelligence or a sense of humour....

explaining humour to you socialists is as forlorn a task as attempting
explaining colour to a blind man....
it is very interesting to watch a socialist leaning 'humourist' and watch
audience reactions...

you use the word 'humour' to indicate a quite different reaction....
yet you clearly cannot discern that difference....ad nauseum
You are very funny absurdalard. "Funny peculiar" not "funny hah-hah"
 
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A

abelard

You are very funny absurdalard. "Funny peculiar" not "funny hah-hah"
what other reaction would one expect from you....

where did you learn that question..the infant playground....
did anyone tell you what it means

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news and comment service, logic,
energy, education, politics, etc 1,507,905 document calls in year past
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
A

abelard

But y'see humour is ultimately entirely subjective.
no it isn't....most things are funny when correctly viewed....
though the idea of a socialist with a soh is mostly funny by
contradiction.
Is Jim Davidson
'funny'? To me, clearly not, but to others, clearly so. How about
Bernard Manning? Peter Cook? Tommy Cooper? Jackie Mason? Woody Allen?
Eric Morecombe? Different people will find all, some or none of these
amusing,
i don't remember any of the above not being funny on occasion
most of them i would not cross the street to hear....but that's
because i'm more interested in using my time usefully....
a dedicated workaholic....and much of that is because i very easily
get bored...

socialists don't find anything much amusing...
eg, hakky doesn't laugh...he just tells one he does because he
believes he can work off his chips that way....

many fundies are like that....and socialism is a particularly simplistic
form of fundamentalism...

even mormons i have met can have a sense of humour but you'd
hardly imagine they were socialists although they do tend to be
fundamentalists....
no....there is sommat particularly humourless about the socialist animal..
but I would be very surprised if their reactions bore any
relation to their political affiliation.

Some left-leaning comedians are amusing,
so, let us see...
so are some right-leaning
comedians. IMO Ben Elton used to be funny, now he isn't,
he never was....you just grew out of him....
one of the most tedious time wasters ever to fill a tv screen

it's a shame really because the idea of a socialist comedian could
be revealing....
like most socialists such people whine and whinge...they are not
funny at all....
tories laugh at each other and even mimic one another...
i'd have thought there was material available but most desperately
aspiring left whinging 'comedians' don't seem to find it....
some tory leaning comedians however raise a smile....eg exaggerating
right wing 'cynicism' and 'hardness'.....
but socialists can't find it in their bowels to laugh at it....
they don't know when it is exaggeration....

they are too busy being 'outraged'/angry or whatever...
whereas Lenny
Henry has never been funny.
indeed...

so, you have had to reach for even 2 examples....
and they both don't work....
Explaining 'humour' is pointless; either
something makes you laugh or it doesn't.
c'mon there are even books on the subject....

if i don't understand a remark intended to be humourous...i usually
ask...usually i then see the point....
how else would one learn...

perhaps you believe it is like motherhood....you just know....
if you're a socialist of course....
can you imagine a tory answering a question with 'speaking
as a mother'....and not guying it up....
but socialists do it quite unconsciously....

regards....

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news and comment service, logic,
energy, education, politics, etc 1,507,905 document calls in year past
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
C

Crowley

abelard said:
what other reaction would one expect from you....

where did you learn that question..the infant playground....
did anyone tell you what it means
I didnt ask a question absurdalard. I made a statement.

You must be even more puddled than I thought you ludicrous, befuddled
old fraud.
 
A

abelard

I didnt ask a question absurdalard. I made a statement.

You must be even more puddled than I thought you ludicrous, befuddled
old fraud.
let me try again just for you....
you are expected to be stu-pid pratt....so i'll try to be patient with you

what is interesting is your apparent belief that your infant playground
comment would raise your credibility above.....
well, an infant playground......

you do have such a belief do you not?

now pretty please, try to make your self useful.....

i want to know why you apparently harbour such an unrealistic belief....
how you arrived at such a 'strange'(i won't say peculiar) belief....

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news and comment service, logic,
energy, education, politics, etc 1,507,905 document calls in year past
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
C

Crowley

abelard said:
let me try again just for you....
you are expected to be stu-pid pratt....so i'll try to be patient with you

what is interesting is your apparent belief that your infant playground
comment would raise your credibility above.....
well, an infant playground......

you do have such a belief do you not?

now pretty please, try to make your self useful.....

i want to know why you apparently harbour such an unrealistic belief....
how you arrived at such a 'strange'(i won't say peculiar) belief....
LOL Keep it coming absurdalard you sad old wittering windbag. You are
just on the point of disappearing up your own arsehole. (again)

And try not to lose your temper, you are just making yourself look even
more ridiculous than usual.
 
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J

John Redman

I may have my attributions wrong but last time I looked the BNP was itself a
socialist party.
 
A

abelard

LOL Keep it coming absurdalard you sad old wittering windbag. You are
just on the point of disappearing up your own arsehole. (again)

And try not to lose your temper, you are just making yourself look even
more ridiculous than usual.
bah....and still you post no content....

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news and comment service, logic,
energy, education, politics, etc 1,507,905 document calls in year past
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
A

abelard

I may have my attributions wrong
not in the slightest....
but last time I looked the BNP was itself a
socialist party.
of course....

regards...

--
web site at www.abelard.org - news and comment service, logic,
energy, education, politics, etc 1,507,905 document calls in year past
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
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J

joeh

abelard said:
no it isn't....
Yes it is, otherwise we'd all find the same thing amusing, and we
don't. Just as some people adore strong cheese, and others can't stand
it.
so, let us see...


he never was....you just grew out of him....
one of the most tedious time wasters ever to fill a tv screen
He was never very funny as a stand-up comedian, but his scripts for
Blackadder are and were excellent.
indeed...

so, you have had to reach for even 2 examples....
and they both don't work....


c'mon there are even books on the subject....

if i don't understand a remark intended to be humourous...i usually
ask...usually i then see the point....
But do you laugh?
how else would one learn...
I would compare finding a joke funny (or not) to finding a person of
the opposite sex attractive or otherwise. Either it works for you or it
doesn't.
 

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