HWO MUCH IS YOUR PROPERTY WORTH ? : according to Yahoo


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D

Daytona

just enter your postcode and the PROPERTY PRICE PREDICTOR will
tell you how much your house price will go up in the next 5 years.
Which part of the word 'could', as in "Your home could increase by n%
in the next 5 years" did you not understand ?"
ha ha ha.
Quite.

Daytona
 
S

sam1967

Which part of the word 'could', as in "Your home could increase by n%
in the next 5 years" did you not understand ?"
which part of this dont you understand: House Prices are falling not
rising so why doesn't the Yahoo Propert Predictor say "Youe home could
decrease by n% in the next 5 years" ?

still in denial ?
 
D

Daytona

still in denial ?
No, just waiting for you to put forward some credible evidence over a
credible timespan.

As someone who's performed my own analysis long before you appeared on
the forum I find your approach lacks credibility, but it does give me
a laugh, so thanks very much for that; I do appreciate it.

Daytona
 
S

sam1967

No, just waiting for you to put forward some credible evidence over a
credible timespan.
Timespan is the key here Daytona. I have a hypothesis which is shared
by many others that the price bubble has burst and prices will fall.
This "insight" was formed by reading Galbraith's books on Stock Market
and other speculative bubbles. The logic is inexorable and I wont bore
you with the details unless you insist.

As with any hypothesis it must make verifiable and testable
predictions. I have made a prediction that prices will fall for
several years based on the speculative bubble hypothesis.

It is up to you and others to test and verify wether this prediction
has any validity. Because of the slow-motion nature of the housing
market compared with Stock markets this price fall will take many
months or even longer to become evident.

But if it does happen (and I think it will) then my hypothesis can be
said to have some validity although it is always possible to be right
for the wrong reasons in the social sphere (which is where markets
operate ) which is why it is almost impossible to make causal
determinations where society is involved.

But as the Greeks said societies (including marekts ) are entirely a
man-made phenomenon (unlike the cosmos for example) and are therefore
amenable to human study and understanding.
 
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S

sam1967

Only seems to work for certain parts of the UK. ie the England and
Wales part, the rest is excluded.
it seems to give the same answer no matter what postcode you enter.
 
R

Richard Faulkner

In message said:
Timespan is the key here Daytona. I have a hypothesis which is shared
by many others that the price bubble has burst and prices will fall.
This "insight" was formed by reading Galbraith's books on Stock Market
and other speculative bubbles. The logic is inexorable and I wont bore
you with the details unless you insist.
Not again!!
As with any hypothesis it must make verifiable and testable
predictions. I have made a prediction that prices will fall for
several years based on the speculative bubble hypothesis.
You are absolutely right. People have been making this prediction every
week for the past 5 years and, one day, one of them will be right - why
It is up to you and others to test and verify wether this prediction
has any validity. Because of the slow-motion nature of the housing
market compared with Stock markets this price fall will take many
months or even longer to become evident.
It's fairly standard in the investment market that if you see it
happening, it is too late.
 
T

Troy Steadman

sam1967 said:
But if it does happen (and I think it will) then my hypothesis can be
said to have some validity although it is always possible to be right
for the wrong reasons in the social sphere (which is where markets
operate ) which is why it is almost impossible to make causal
determinations where society is involved.

Why do you believe this is an investment bubble?

The population round here is increasing, more people squeezing more and
more tightly into the same number of houses, *that* is what is forcing
up prices, not speculation.


--
 
C

curiosity

Why do you believe this is an investment bubble?
a google on "uk housing bubble" brings up a mere 76,000 hits.

Whether it turns out to be a bubble or not, there's a rational cause for the
suspicion.
The population round here is increasing, more people squeezing more and
more tightly into the same number of houses, *that* is what is forcing
up prices, not speculation.
*that* is a point of view.
 
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D

Daytona

Because of the slow-motion nature of the housing
market compared with Stock markets this price fall will take many
months or even longer to become evident.
So why do you wet yourself every time the latest monthly
Halifax/Nationwide/Rightmove/RICS survey appears ?

Daytona
 
M

M Holmes

Troy Steadman said:
Why do you believe this is an investment bubble?
The fact that we're more awash in credit than any prior point in history?
The population round here is increasing, more people squeezing more and
more tightly into the same number of houses, *that* is what is forcing
up prices, not speculation.
If this theory were correct, rents would have tracked prices up due to
the same preference shift towards housing. They haven't.

FoFP
 
T

Tumbleweed

M Holmes said:
The fact that we're more awash in credit than any prior point in history?


If this theory were correct, rents would have tracked prices up due to
the same preference shift towards housing. They haven't.

FoFP
There was an article in last Fridays times pointing out that rents have
recently risen.
 
T

Tim

Troy said:
The fact that we're more awash in credit than any prior point in history?
The planet is also more "awash" with homo-sapiens than at any prior point in
history. Does that mean that we're imminently going to have the population
reduce substantially??! :-((
 
D

dont_reply_to_me

The planet is also more "awash" with homo-sapiens than at any prior point in
history. Does that mean that we're imminently going to have the population
reduce substantially??! :-((
Hmm, could be. Take a look at chaos theory.
 
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C

curiosity

The planet is also more "awash" with homo-sapiens than at any prior point in
history. Does that mean that we're imminently going to have the population
reduce substantially??! :-((
oddly enough pandemics are in the news and urbanism is a principal cause.

Maybe bird flue will do it.........just think how cheap houses will be then.
 
T

Tim

Hmm, could be. Take a look at chaos theory.
Hmmm. Perhaps you're thinking of the wrong theory? - Chaos theory doesn't
say anything at all about populations!
 
S

sam1967

Why do you believe this is an investment bubble?
Based on a small number of books I have read on the subject: Mackay,
Galbraith and the Irrational Exuberance book by Shiller.
Also some articles by Kindleberger and even Soros.

Galbraith was the most convincing and If I can try and sum up his
theory of the speculative bubble in a few sentences I will probably
cock something up as I am not an economist but what the hell.

Rising prices on certain commodities (stocks and shares , housing ,
tulips etc ) attract more than normal level of interest from buyers
which pushes up the price. This is perfectly normal and is what you
would expect in a classical supply-demand situation. An increase in
demand pushes up the price with the supply remaining reasonably
constant. What makes it a speculative bubble is that the rising value
of the commodity (caused by increased interest by buyers) gives those
buyers the ability to raise more cash based on the increased value to
then re-invest in the same commodity. This is called leverage.
As long as there is fresh buyers bringing new money to the table this
game can go on for quite a while. The money from the new buyers
enables the etsablished buyers to then sell at even higher prices and
so on and so forth. However there comes a time when new buyers dry up
and the leverage goes into reverse . There is no one to buy the
commodity at the hugely inflated prices and the price must of
necessity start falling as ineluctably as an apple from a tree.
When the price starts falling the paper wealth of many starts
dwindling and they can no longer honour their debts which were backed
up on the strength of the price of the commodity. The fact that they
used the commodity gains to borrow money to buy more of that commodity
only makes the reverse leverage all the more acute in its action.

I hope that makes some sense and I am sure economists among you can
point out my mis-reading (forgetting) of Galbraith as I dont have the
book to hand.

A good example of this happened in the 70s in the Silver market in
London. Two brothers , whose name I forget , cornered the market in
silver and aggressivley drove up its price. They borrowed a lot of
money to do this and most of this money was borrowed on the strength
of their assets. ie they were lent so much by the bank because they
owned so much silver valued at so many dollars or pounds per ounce.
They completely dominated the silver market and at one point almost
owned the lot. However they could not meet their interest payments and
had to sell some silver to raise cash. Selling the silver resulted in
reverse leverage taking place and the price collapsed in vbery short
order leaving them bankrupt.
 
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T

Tumbleweed

Tim said:
Hmmm. Perhaps you're thinking of the wrong theory? - Chaos theory
doesn't
say anything at all about populations!
There was a lot of chaos theory in population dynamics from what I recall.
 

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