OT.. Betting Odds


T

The Devil

I'm thinking of putting a fiver (£5) on L Hamilton to win. (USA F1 Grand
Prix) at 8/11. How much will I get back?
 
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N

Nebulous

The Devil said:
I'm thinking of putting a fiver (£5) on L Hamilton to win. (USA F1 Grand
Prix) at 8/11. How much will I get back?
£8.63 or maybe £8.64 if the bookie is feeling generous.

Your winnings are £5x8/11 = £3.63 or £3.64 rounded up. Plus the return of
your original £5 stake.

Not amazingly good odds given the propensity of F1 cars to break down.

Neb
 
A

Alan Ferris

£8.63 or maybe £8.64 if the bookie is feeling generous.

Your winnings are £5x8/11 = £3.63 or £3.64 rounded up. Plus the return of
your original £5 stake.

Not amazingly good odds given the propensity of F1 cars to break down.
Considering Hamilton's car has not shown a tendency to fail why do you
think the odds odd.

--
Alan "Ferrit" Ferris

()'.'.'()
( (T) )
( ) . ( )
(")_(")
 
N

Nebulous

Alan Ferris said:
Considering Hamilton's car has not shown a tendency to fail why do you
think the odds odd.
I didn't say they were odd. I said they were not good.

Formula one is subject too a lot of variables outwith the drivers control.
Mechanical or Electronic breakdown being one of them. Someone else doing
something stupid and taking you out as well. Bad choice of tyres if the
weather does something unexpected. etc

Then again it's a gamble isn't it?!!!!

Neb
 
M

Mark Goodge

Considering Hamilton's car has not shown a tendency to fail why do you
think the odds odd.
They're not odd, they're just too biased towards the bookies.

On average, only 35% of races are won by the car starting from pole
position[1]. Even if Hamilton's car is more reliable than average, and
he's a better driver than the average pole starter, that still doesn't
make 8/11 (or anything the wrong side of evens) look at all good.

The OP would be better advised to have a punt on Fernando Alonso,
currently being offered at 11/8 by Blue Square. The number 2 position
on the grid wins almost as often (33% of races ) as pole, and so far
this season the McLarens do seem to be the best cars on the grid so
the winner is more likely to come from one of those two than the
historical averages would suggest. If that is the case, then Alonso's
prices are far superior to Hamilton's when it comes to placing a bet.

[1] http://atlasf1.autosport.com/2000/feb23/wright.html has detailed
figures for years up to 2000; the averages may have changed a bit in
subsequent years but it's unlikely that they're wildly different.

Mark
 
A

Alan Ferris

Considering Hamilton's car has not shown a tendency to fail why do you
think the odds odd.
They're not odd, they're just too biased towards the bookies.

On average, only 35% of races are won by the car starting from pole
position[1]. Even if Hamilton's car is more reliable than average, and
he's a better driver than the average pole starter, that still doesn't
make 8/11 (or anything the wrong side of evens) look at all good.

The OP would be better advised to have a punt on Fernando Alonso,
currently being offered at 11/8 by Blue Square. The number 2 position
on the grid wins almost as often (33% of races ) as pole, and so far
this season the McLarens do seem to be the best cars on the grid so
the winner is more likely to come from one of those two than the
historical averages would suggest. If that is the case, then Alonso's
prices are far superior to Hamilton's when it comes to placing a bet.

[1] http://atlasf1.autosport.com/2000/feb23/wright.html has detailed
figures for years up to 2000; the averages may have changed a bit in
subsequent years but it's unlikely that they're wildly different.
Odds for a bet are not just based on the likelihood of the win, but
also on how many bets have, or are likely to be made and therefore how
much risk the bookie is taking.

Never try to equate the odds of an event happening with the bookies
odds, it just does not work that simply.


--
Alan "Ferrit" Ferris

()'.'.'()
( (T) )
( ) . ( )
(")_(")
 
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M

Mark Goodge

I'm thinking of putting a fiver (£5) on L Hamilton to win. (USA F1 Grand
Prix) at 8/11. How much will I get back?


£8.63 or maybe £8.64 if the bookie is feeling generous.

Your winnings are £5x8/11 = £3.63 or £3.64 rounded up. Plus the return of
your original £5 stake.

Not amazingly good odds given the propensity of F1 cars to break down.

Considering Hamilton's car has not shown a tendency to fail why do you
think the odds odd.
They're not odd, they're just too biased towards the bookies.

On average, only 35% of races are won by the car starting from pole
position[1]. Even if Hamilton's car is more reliable than average, and
he's a better driver than the average pole starter, that still doesn't
make 8/11 (or anything the wrong side of evens) look at all good.

The OP would be better advised to have a punt on Fernando Alonso,
currently being offered at 11/8 by Blue Square. The number 2 position
on the grid wins almost as often (33% of races ) as pole, and so far
this season the McLarens do seem to be the best cars on the grid so
the winner is more likely to come from one of those two than the
historical averages would suggest. If that is the case, then Alonso's
prices are far superior to Hamilton's when it comes to placing a bet.

[1] http://atlasf1.autosport.com/2000/feb23/wright.html has detailed
figures for years up to 2000; the averages may have changed a bit in
subsequent years but it's unlikely that they're wildly different.
Odds for a bet are not just based on the likelihood of the win, but
also on how many bets have, or are likely to be made and therefore how
much risk the bookie is taking.
Indeed. That's why the odds on a Hamilton win are so poor that no
sensible gambler would take them.
Never try to equate the odds of an event happening with the bookies
odds, it just does not work that simply.
That's precisely why bookies make money.

Mark
 
T

The Devil

Nebulous said:
£8.63 or maybe £8.64 if the bookie is feeling generous.

Your winnings are £5x8/11 = £3.63 or £3.64 rounded up. Plus the return of
your original £5 stake.

Not amazingly good odds given the propensity of F1 cars to break down.

Neb
Thanks, Neb, Hamilton won ;) I got back £8.64p.. I used willhill.com , I bet
his odds will improve for the next race 2 weeks time in France!
 
T

Terry D

The Devil said:
Thanks, Neb, Hamilton won ;) I got back £8.64p.. I used willhill.com , I
bet his odds will improve for the next race 2 weeks time in France!
I fail to understand your inability to multiply 5 x 8/11 by simple
multiplication & division (the 11 times table is easy) or don't you possess
a calculator? If not, your mobile phone probably has such a facility. I
find it a disgrace that these days so many people plead ignorance to simple
maths and in fact seem to be proud of the fact!

Terry D.
 
T

Thomas Titmus

The said:
Thanks, Neb, Hamilton won ;) I got back £8.64p.. I used willhill.com , I bet
his odds will improve for the next race 2 weeks time in France!
I'll lay evens his odds won't improve.
Tom
 
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