stock screening criteria


D

dumbstruck

This seems to be good times for stock picking... quite a few give reliable out performance. Anyone care to share stock screening criteria?

I'm especially looking for convenient numbers that can knock out otherwise atractive candidates. Not so simple as a high pe which some good stocks have, but more like peg ratios... although i dont understand what units they use to calculate growth.

I avoid stocks with concave up, exponential share price growth, but hard to put a number to that. Its not captired by volatility because i want a linear outperformance over the averages.

Im very unhappy with canned stock screeners that i tried... if i filter by peg ratios, they omit ones with unavailable ratios for instance. They do the exact opposite for unknowns than what is useful. Well, that means every one else is using crippled tools too. Thanx
 
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H

honda.lioness

This seems to be good times for stock picking... quite a few give
reliable out performance. Anyone care to share stock screening criteria?
For the mostly buy-and-holder (hence not seeking short-term gains): One may google for Benjamin Graham's criteria. Graham criteria indicates the market is overvalued. I continue to sell half of many positions that have become too large a fraction of my portfolio. I am letting the cash sit until P/Es in particular come down. Else I ponder the seeming weather pattern and what it is supposed to do to food prices. I think the lower income classes are going to see things get worse. I know I am lucky, with my portfolio, to not have to work for my income. I am returning to volunteering teaching those who want to get their GED, prepping them for the math section; majors at the local community college; and how to apply to same; in particular. I expect this will be my best investment in the economy for the immediate future. More education for one's community translates to greater company profits; lower health care costs; less crime (costing me less in taxes); and so on. I understand studies have translated the return-on-investment of every dollar put into this level of education. I am a volunteer but the programs with which I work need money for building space, school materials, helping students pay for taking the GED, etc. I am told the ROI is stunning. I write this with a straight and sober face.
 
A

Avrum Lapin

For the mostly buy-and-holder (hence not seeking short-term gains): One may
google for Benjamin Graham's criteria. Graham criteria indicates the market
is overvalued. I continue to sell half of many positions that have become too
large a fraction of my portfolio. I am letting the cash sit until P/Es in
particular come down. Else I ponder the seeming weather pattern and what it
is supposed to do to food prices. I think the lower income classes are going
to see things get worse. I know I am lucky, with my portfolio, to not have to
work for my income. I am returning to volunteering teaching those who want to
get their GED, prepping them for the math section; majors at the local
community college; and how to apply to same; in particular. I expect this
will be my best investment in the economy for the immediate future. More
education for one's community translates to greater company profits; lower
health care costs; less crime (costing me less in taxes); and so on. I
understand studies have translated the return-on-investment of every dollar
put into this level of education. I am a volunteer but the programs with
which I work need money for building space, school materials, helping
students pay for taking the GED, etc. I am told the ROI is stunning. I write
this with a straight and sober face.
As a volunteer doing Medicare Counseling and Tax Counseling I have do
agree that there is a lot of joy in helping those who want to helped and
are glad that the help is available.
 
D

dumbstruck

For the mostly buy-and-holder (hence not seeking short-term gains): One may google for Benjamin Graham's criteria. Graham criteria indicates the market is overvalued. I continue to sell half of many positions that have become too large a fraction of my portfolio. I am letting the cash sit until P/Es in particular come down. Else I ponder the seeming weather pattern and what it is supposed to do to food prices. I think the lower income classes are going to see things get worse. I know I am lucky, with my portfolio, to not have to work for my income. I am returning to volunteering teaching those who want to get their GED, prepping them for
Yes, you have to be ready to hit the sell button in a couple days notice, but these have been zesty times for US stock watchers. Just read the list of all time highs every weeknight... you will soon see the same names on the list 3 outta every 5 days. What you have to worry about is an earnings report... even when excellent they will sell on the news and dive 8% and maybe more tommorrow. But by then you typically have 40% gains anyway.

I don't like this kind of market watching, but the macro/fund plays that served me for decades have all gone zombie and correlated to each other. A working approach for part of my portfolio has been to combine my momentum sniffing with hearing fundamentals-talking heads on the TV, but that is tedious. I try to sanity check with peg ratios, but I think that is a rubber number more suited towards relative ranking (based on investopedia definition).

As for market danger, a wall of worry may be what keeps us up. Certainly event risk seems high. With a momentum approach I don't need to pre-judge, but can sell as badness arises. I expect to lose 20% from the high, but normally bought at far, far lower price. There is currently a risk-on signal from the very cautious http://www.decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html who has rarely missed predicting downtrends in the past dozen years. Yes, we should not base a whole portfolio on signals or momentum... diversify!

It's an interesting experiment to run different strategies in different accounts... IRA, backup regular, etc. For instance it bugged me how well an account did where I used more of a buy and stagnate approach due to higher trade fees. No better than my active trading area, but annoyingly close. It disciplined me in improving my active approach, eg. revealing the pitfall of treating sudden paper profits like the house's money rather than my own precious.

As for your gloom about trends, I offer up an author presentation The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves http://www.booktv.org/Watch/11583/The+Rational+Optimist+How+Prosperity+Evolves.aspx

Our worst, most needless bugaboo is unintended consequences of increased meddling in markets. The food crunch you mention is smacked by the forced biofuel policy of US and Brazil. Also restrictions on genetic mod crops. Asia may not be making those mistakes, but they are going headlong into more meat eating which takes many times as much agric resources. Free the market, and true rather than subsidized prices can keep such self sabotaging trends in check.

See how we are thus fighting the natural healing progression of our economy from another author: http://www.booktv.org/Watch/13749/After+Words+Edward+Conard+Unintended+Consequences+Why+Everything+Youve+Been+Told+About+the+Economy+is+Wrong+hosted+by+Michael+Ettlinger+Center+for+American+Progress.aspx

As for volunteerism, I've been abused by parents using my tutor time as free babysitting. Abused by fellow volunteers with selfish counterproductive agendas. Abused by charities using my funds for politicking. My altruistic goal going forward is to resist economic decline due to eurosocialism by a boycott of obamacare for 2014 (a boycott hazardous to the wallet and health of us conscientious objectors, but there are legal paths to prevent collection tax penalties, etc).
 
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R

Ron Peterson

This seems to be good times for stock picking... quite a few give reliable out performance. Anyone care to share stock screening criteria?
There are too many good criteria and if you can do better than average on the right ones you should get better than average results.

A wide moat is great because the company isn't likely to have negative earnings and will do well against competitors.

A low price to tangible book shows that the stock isn't over priced.

A high return on equity means that the company can grow on its own earnings.

Growing revenues means that the company is growing and because of accelerated depreciation earnings are higher than reported.
 

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