Zvi Bodie pushes TIPs again...


D

David S Meyers CFP

Major piece in today's Wall Street Journal, "Why Stocks are Riskier
Than You Think" by Zvi Bodie and Rachelle Taqqu

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204795304577221052377253224.html?mod=googlenews_wsj


(Of course, Bodie and Taqqu are also hoping that this article will lead
a lof of people to buy their recent book, "Risk Less and Prosper".
Bodie and Taqqu's own retirement plan likely hinges on profits from
book sales at least as much as from their portfolios…)

Like a broken record, Bodie again says (mostly) to avoid stocks and to
buy inflation-protected bonds. I say "mostly" because they do allow
for the suggestion that one may fund one's "aspirational goals" with
balanced portfolios which may include stocks (and/or options or more
complex hedged funds).

What they don't focus on is exactly how much one needs to save if one
is putting one's entire essential retirement savings into TIPs. Given
that the "real" return on them (ie. the return after inflation) is now
zero - you got that - nothing whatsoever - it means that every
inflation adjusted dollar you plan on spending in retirement needs to
be saved today. There is no allowance for growth. If you've saved 20x
your cost of living, then you will have 20 years and then be broke.
And given longevities now, we have to allow for the likelihood that
retirement, especially for the survivor of a couple, may last well over
30 years.

That all said, Bodie is right in that folks often invest in stocks
without fully understanding the risks. But that doesn't mean that
folks shouldn't have more in stocks than he's saying, either. He
seriously underplays the risks inherent in bonds, especially given
today's ultra-low interest rates.

At the end of the article, they describe, effectively, a zero-cost
means of hedging exposure through a "zero-cost collar". If you buy SPY
at $136 and you buy a put with a strike at $116 (limiting you to a 15%
loss) and sell a call with a strike at $143 (which has the same price
as the put you've bought, so the prices of the options cancel each
other out), you've bought the S&P500 and limited your downside to a
maximum 15% loss but you've also limited your upside to a 6% gain over
the following four months. This is a pretty good illustration of how
expensive that "loss insurance" is - you limit your upside to less than
half your downside. You could limit your upside less -- at a cost --
by either not selling the call or selling a call with a higher strike
price (and thus getting less cash to offset the cost of your puts).
Bodie makes an example of getting a higher upside by also hedging with
a worse downside risk. It's a great illustration of some of the
mechanics of equity hedging and its costs (though of course, it also
ignores taxes and dividends - both of which may have substantial impact
on the net result).

Bodie has also, in the past, suggested a portfolio consisting of TIPs
plus buying long-dated call options on the equity market. He suggested
that, if I recall correctly, at a time when in fact TIPs had a non-zero
real return and his explanation was that with the real yield from the
TIPs was enough to pay for the options. That way you guaranteed a real
return of at least zero (ie. no real loss) but also bought some
potential equity market up-side as well in the case that equities
performed well. That strategy won't work now, of course, as there's no
real yield available from the TIPs to fund the equity part of that
strategy.

Anyway, while I don't necessarily agree with the advice he's giving,
especially for folks with long time horizons and any appetite for risk,
I do think his article is well worth reading and some good food for
thought.

And I really liked the collar illustration. It's something worth
understanding and may be nice to actually take on its own and
illustrate better for people, especially when they ask just how the
annuity business can afford to guarantee limited downside -- it shows
the *costs* of downside limits pretty nicely (even if that's not
exactly how an insurance company actually does it).


--
David S. Meyers, CFP®
http://www.MeyersMoney.com
disclaimer: discussions in misc.invest.financial-plan are for
educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial
advice. For personal financial advice, please consult directly with a
professional.
 
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J

JoeTaxpayer

Major piece in today's Wall Street Journal, "Why Stocks are Riskier Than
You Think" by Zvi Bodie and Rachelle Taqqu

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204795304577221052377253224.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Zvi Bodie came to my attention through his book "worry free investing"
in which he advocated TIPS. Unfortunately, he wrote it at a time when
TIPS were at 3% plus inflation, but by the time it was published it was
less than half (the 3%) and close to zero now.
At 3% real return, my math showed a 16% savings rate would have worked
to achieve his goal. You can pull the calculator from his site
http://www.prenhall.com/worryfree/ and find that the savings rate
required is absurd.

I mean this in a nice way - his proposal was sound, but didn't take into
account the very low real rates TIPS would eventually yield.

Even after the naughty-naughts, I'm not avoiding stocks.
 
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H

honda.lioness

Major piece in today's Wall Street Journal, "Why Stocks are Riskier
Than You Think" by Zvi Bodie and Rachelle Taqqu

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204795304577221052377253224.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
David, I appreciate your posting this. Bodie has not sold me on his strategy, but what he is trying to sell is interesting and helps me probe at my own strategy (diversify enough that one is betting more-or-less on the entire world economy). Bodie seems to over-emphasize the hypothetical of a person buying only an S&P 500 index fund and only at the S&P's peak in 2007 (or 2000, if one prefers). These assumptions are enormous. Still let's entertain his doomsday analysis. With dividends re-invested and diversified simply into 60/40 stocks/bonds using VBINX,* the historical numbers belie his claims. E.g.

2012
SPY = 138
VBINX = 23

October 2007
SPY = 143
VBINX = 20

March 2000 S&P Peak
SPY = 125
VBINX = 15


The strike and call strategy so as to limit losses to say 15% and gains to 6% bothers me because Bodie does not say what the strategy is after one has sold at the 15% loss or the 6% gain. I guess one sits out after these sales until things look "more favorable" (whatever that means in the context of the instant one is looking at stocks)? Sounds like timing and hindsight to me.


*This hearkens back to Tad B's posts on the performance of index funds such as SPY vs. VBINX, a 60/40 stock/bond fund.
 

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